SECRET                           SECRET      

Auth by CS, USAF                           

              PART TWO                27 Apr 1949    




During the past six months very few reports have appeared in the
press on the subject of flying saucers. However, recent allegations on
the radio and in the press that the saucers are actually Soviet guided
missiles find no real support in the continuing, exhaustive investigations
and analyses which have been conducted as project "Grudge" (formerly
project "Sign") by the USAF Air Materiel Command. Realistic treat-
ments of the subject will appear this week in the Saturday Evening Post.

A total of 294 incidents involving unidentified aerial objects have
been recorded. The majority of these are domestic observations but
there are many reports from foreign sources. Data on unidentified aerial
objects places them in several distinct groups; disc, spherical, elliptical,
or cylindrical shaped objects, winged objects, and light phenomena. The
extreme lack of accurate observed details and the unpredictable occurrence
of incidents have made positive identification difficult. However, extensive
checks by field investigators, project personnel and such agencies as Air
Weather Service and the Rand Corporation in addition to the study of in-
cidents by specialists such as Dr. G. E. Valley (USAF Scientific Advisory
Board) and Dr. Hynek, Ohio State University astro-physicist, point to the
following conclusions:

1.   The majority of reported incidents are reliable to the extent that
they have involved actual sighting of some object or light phenomena.

2.   The majority of reported incidents have been caused by mis-
identification of weather balloons, high altitude balloons with lights or
electronic equipment, meteors, bolides, and celestial bodies.

3.   There are numerous reports from reliable and competent obser-
vers for which a conclusive explanation has not been possible. Some of
these involve descriptions which would place them in the category of new
manifestations of probable natural phenomena, but others involve con-
figurations and described performance which might conceivably represent
an advanced aerodynamical development. A few unexplained incidents
surpass these limits of credibility.

Representative of an unexplained incident which has credible features,
but which has defied definite proof or denial, was the sighting by two

              This paper was presented to the DCS/O Staff Meeting on 27 April.




Eastern Air Lines pilots in the air near Montgomery, Alabama, of
an object resembling a V-2 in horizontal flight. While the cigar or
torpedo-shaped body represents an efficient form for the fuselage of
an airplane or of a guided missile, it has not been used as a primary
lift-producing surface. It is estimated, however, that a fuselage of the
dimensions reported by the Eastern Air Lines pilots, could support a
load comparable to the weight of an aircraft of this size at speeds in
the subsonic range. Although the craft sighted by these pilots was re-
ported to be without wings and fins, it is possible that such a craft could
be equipped with extensible wings for take-off and landing. The propulsion
system of this type of vehicle would appear to be by jet or rocket, and the
specific fuel consumption of such engines for this type craft would be
rather high. This, coupled with the fact that aerodynamic lift on such a
body would be accompanied by high drag, places a serious limitation on
the range of this type of craft for any particular gross weight. If this
type of unidentified aerial object has extremely long range, a method of
propulsion far in advance of presently known engines would be required.
It is believed unlikely that this and similar unexplained incidents represent
a foreign craft. It seems improbable that a foreign power would expose
any superior aerial weapon by a prolonged ineffectual penetration of the
United States, and there is no basis on which to speculate that advanced
civilizations exist outside the earth and are responsible for any such acti-

Recently, the repeated occurrence of green fireball phenomena in New
Mexico was given special attention by Dr. Joseph Kaplan, Member of the
USAF Scientific Advisory Board. This phenomena has caused considerable
concern on the part of Hq. Fourth Army, and has occupied the interests
of Dr. Lincoln LaPaz of the University of New Mexico. Dr. LaPaz be-
lieves that the phenomena are not meteorites. Because of Dr. LaPaz'
outstanding ability for accurate observation and his experience in identi-
fication of meteoric phenomena, Dr. Kaplan expressed the belief that the
green fireball phenomena should be further investigated. Dr. Kaplan's
views were discussed with Dr. Theodore von Karman, Chairman of the
USAF Scientific Advisory Board, who feels that the problem might belong
more properly in the field of upper atmosphere research than the field of

Investigations continue in an effort to find definite explanations for
the many unidentified aerial objects which have been reported during
the past two years.




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